Across all physician specialties in the U.S., there is a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians in 2038, according to a December report from the Health Resources and Services Administration.
The shortage is largely understood to be a supply and demand mismatch, as physicians are retiring at a rate faster than that of new physicians entering the industry — meaning solutions must be multipronged and long term.
Jennifer Lynch, MD, an otolaryngologist at Emplify Health Green Bay (Wis.) Ear Nose Throat, recently joined Becker’s to discuss the physician shortage and how leaders can address it at national, local and facility levels.
Editor’s note: This response has been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Question: What steps should be taken at the federal or state levels to increase the number of available physicians while preventing early retirements or folks leaving medicine?
Dr. Jennifer Lynch: When we talk about the physician shortage, the conversation usually centers on expanding medical school slots and increasing residency funding. Those matter. But while we fail to produce enough physicians, if experienced physicians are exiting in their 50s, we drain a valuable resource.
In my work with early career clinicians, I encourage them to look beyond signing bonuses, loan forgiveness and starting salaries. I encourage them to take a longer-term assessment of job opportunities and ask: What do physicians in their third decade of practice look like here? Are they leading, mentoring, innovating? Are physicians valued for their judgment and institutional wisdom or primarily for RVU production?
Federal payment policy shapes physician career trajectories. Over the past decade, CMS reimbursement formulas increase hospital/facility payments while professional fees for physicians have declined in real dollars. That widening gap has accelerated physician employment, where compensation is often tied narrowly to productivity metrics. In independent practice, physicians are not just clinical producers, they are business owners, community leaders and long-term stewards of care delivery. When policy disadvantages that model, we risk eroding a career structure that historically rewarded autonomy, innovation and durability. Payment reform has the potential to ensure that professional expertise is sustainably valued.
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