Some of the highest-paying physician specialties are also facing the most severe projected shortages.
Becker’s gathered data from Medscape’s “Physician Compensation Report 2026,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis to understand how pay, workforce projections and shortages among 27 specialties stack up.
The broader picture is one of workforce mismatch: Healthcare overall is the fastest-growing industry sector in the BLS projections, expected to add jobs at 8.4% through 2034 — but physician specialties are seeing a growth rate of 3% to 6%. There is a projected shortage of more than 141,000 physicians looming by 2038, and only five specialties are projected to meet demand adequacy in the next 10 years. Dermatologists and psychiatrists lead in specialty growth at 6%; they are two of seven specialties that saw pay decreases in 2026. Overall, physician pay rose 3% in 2025.
On a specialty level, some of the highest-paid specialties are also among the most acutely short-staffed. Vascular surgery is projected to face the deepest shortage of any specialty by 2038, with supply meeting only 66% of projected demand. Ophthalmology follows at 72% adequacy, thoracic surgery at 73% and plastic surgery at 74%. All four rank among the higher-paying specialties.
BLS data found that nurse practitioners represent the fastest-growing healthcare profession at 40%. This could be due to a shift in healthcare culture as more systems lean on nurse practitioners and other advanced practice providers to fill the gaps of physician shortages.
Here are 27 physician specialties by pay, along with their pay change, projected growth and projected adequacy by 2038.
| Specialty | Average pay in 2025 | Pay change in 2025 | BLS growth(2024-2034) | HRSA adequacy 2038 |
| Orthopedics & orthopedic surgery | $611K | +8% | 4% | 88% (-12%) |
| Cardiology | $575K | +10% | 4% | 85% (-15%) |
| Radiology | $571K | +9% | 3% | 90% (-10%) |
| Plastic surgery | $554K | +2% | — | 74% (-26%) |
| Anesthesiology | $543K | +8% | 3% | 83% (-17%) |
| Gastroenterology | $530K | +3% | — | 98% (-2%) |
| Otolaryngology | $508K | +5% | — | 87% (-13%) |
| Oncology & hematology | $464K | -2% | — | 96% (-4%) |
| Dermatology | $448K | -1% | 6% | 95% (-5%) |
| Ophthalmology | $446K | +9% | 4% | 72% (-28%) |
| General surgery | $442K | +2% | 4% | 91% (-9%) |
| Critical care | $427K | +2% | — | 112% (+12%) |
| Emergency medicine | $421K | +8% | 3% | *116% (+16%) |
| Pulmonary medicine | $395K | -2% | — | 112% (+12%) |
| Pathology | $394K | +1% | 4% | 84% (-16%) |
| OB-GYN | $390K | +5% | 1% | 86% (-14%) |
| Physical medicine & rehabilitation | $359K | -1% | — | 85% (-15%) |
| Nephrology | $359K | -1% | — | 85% (-15%) |
| Neurology | $341K | +3% | 5% | 104% (+4%) |
| Psychiatry | $331K | -3% | 6% | — |
| Allergy & immunology | $310K | -3% | — | 83% (-17%) |
| Internal medicine | $307K | +5% | 3% | 83% (-17%) |
| Family medicine | $288K | +2% | 3% | 76% (-24%) |
| Diabetes & endocrinology | $284K | +4% | — | 109% (+9%) |
| Rheumatology | $284K | 0% | — | 91% (-9%) |
| Infectious diseases | $282K | +2% | — | 91% (-9%) |
| Pediatrics | $266K | 0% | 1% | 86% (-14%) |
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